In December of 2021, our proprietary market top indicator, the CakeTrades PCRI's, printed a sell signal. We issued the warning to our members, and global equity markets began the plunge that lead to the ongoing 2022 bear market.
As with any sell signal, we never know how bad the damage will truly be, though we can estimate using a combination of market breadth and technical studies. However, like in 2018 and again in 2020, we saw a decline that came suddenly and caught many by surprise.
Unlike these other periods though, our indicators never printed a bottom signal, and instead printed a sequential sell signal. This was the first time this has happened in the history of our indicator!
Members got a warning of a top last Thursday with a sell signal Friday (warning sent Saturday) and we obviously have some confirmation today.
— CakeTrades (@cake_trades) August 22, 2022
All it takes is one warning to earn the price of admission. pic.twitter.com/TIRQKB2J0I
As you can see in this embedded tweet, our signals were distributed via our private Discord on August 18, 2022. SPX was near 4300 at the time, and since then, has dropped more than 15% to just fractions above the June lows.
Now that the bear market is out in full force, and the Federal Reserve seems unwilling to pivot, there are questions as to how deeply the losses can extend. Our models, which we update frequently to keep pace with the market, suggest the damage could lead us into SPX 3400-3500 before a small rally, perhaps closing out the year with a final bear impulse to test SPX 3k and NDX 10k.